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Mosquitoes in the genusCulexare primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change.

We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan forCulex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis, andCx. restuansfrom existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines.

We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individualCulexspecies, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects.

Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal.

 

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020. 

The citizen Continental-America Telescopic Eclipse (CATE) Experiment was a new type of citizen science experiment designed to capture a time sequence of white-light coronal observations during totality from 17:16 to 18:48 UT on 2017 August 21. Using identical instruments the CATE group imaged the inner corona from 1 to 2.1 RSun with 1.″43 pixels at a cadence of 2.1 s. A slow coronal mass ejection (CME) started on the SW limb of the Sun before the total eclipse began. An analysis of CATE data from 17:22 to 17:39 UT maps the spatial distribution of coronal flow velocities from about 1.2 to 2.1 RSun, and shows the CME material accelerates from about 0 to 200 km s⁻¹across this part of the corona. This CME is observed by LASCO C2 at 3.1–13 RSun with a constant speed of 254 km s⁻¹. The CATE and LASCO observations are not fit by either constant acceleration nor spatially uniform velocity change, and so the CME acceleration mechanism must produce variable acceleration in this region of the corona.